Latest news with #global trade
Bloomberg
12 hours ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Stock Strategists Are Struggling to Keep Up With Trump
Trying to predict markets has always been tough. Under the capriciousness of the Trump administration, where global trade policies are set on whims, it's become near impossible for Wall Street strategists.
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
3 Factors Behind Bitcoin's Latest Record High. Will This Major Cryptocurrency Continue to Rise?
Bitcoin just hit a new all-time high of $120,000, primarily on the basis of rising institutional demand. New crypto-friendly policies from the Trump administration are also helping to power Bitcoin higher. While crypto market sentiment is currently bullish, there are still many unanswered questions related to the U.S. economy and global trade. 10 stocks we like better than Bitcoin › Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) just surged past the $120,000 mark, setting yet another all-time high. Bitcoin is now up more than 28% for the year, and could be ready to soar even higher in the second half of the year. While Bitcoin's upward ascent might seem inevitable to many, there was actually a period in April when the cryptocurrency's price trajectory was very much in doubt. Bitcoin fell from a (then) all-time high of $110,000 to nearly $70,000. It has now fully recovered, and appears to be stronger than ever. So how did we get from there to here, in such a short period of time? The biggest factor in Bitcoin's favor has been robust demand from institutional buyers. The easiest way to see this in action is by tracking inflows (and outflows) of the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). During the peak of tariff uncertainty, money actually started to flow out of these ETFs, and the price of Bitcoin fell accordingly. But then, in early May, flows reversed again, with institutional investors once again placing their faith in Bitcoin. At the same time, an entirely new source of demand has emerged: the Bitcoin treasury company. Around the world, companies are loading up on Bitcoin for their balance sheets. In the U.S., the best example is Strategy, the company formerly known as MicroStrategy. In Japan, there's Metaplanet. In Europe, there's The Blockchain Group. What's particularly fascinating is that some companies in industries not even tangentially related to crypto appear to be abandoning their prior business models entirely as they refocus on Bitcoin. There are medical device companies buying Bitcoin. There are luxury watchmakers buying Bitcoin. There are real estate companies buying Bitcoin. And there are social media companies now buying Bitcoin. The other big factor in Bitcoin's favor has been strong support from the Trump administration. This goes far beyond just showing up at Bitcoin events in Las Vegas, or hosting crypto summits at the White House. The Trump administration is actually starting to draft legislation for the crypto market. The first step was the debut of new stablecoin legislation. The next step will be the passage of broad crypto market legislation, clearly laying out the rules of the road for different crypto assets, similar to what already exists in Europe. After that, it's likely that we'll see passage of new legislation that codifies the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve into law. When President Donald Trump signed the executive order in March, there was only a broad framework for how such a reserve would function. So it's important to sign into law something along the lines of the Bitcoin Act of 2025, which has already been introduced by Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyoming). The third and final piece of the puzzle is market sentiment. This has the power to move markets up or down extremely quickly. Right now, investors are buoyant. Equity markets are at all-time highs, Bitcoin is at an all-time high, and Nvidia just became the first company to hit a $4 trillion market valuation. With all of this good news pouring in, it's easy to forget about tariffs, inflation, the national debt, or budget crises. It's easy to downplay geopolitical risk in Ukraine or the Middle East. And so the market keeps going up. If you look at the CoinMarketCap crypto Fear and Greed Index, which measures sentiment in the crypto market, the overall sentiment has primarily been neutral since the end of April. In fact, on some days, the Fear and Greed Index was giving a reading of 50, which is exactly halfway between "extremely fearful" and "extremely greedy." Today, with Bitcoin pushing above $120,000, the reading has suddenly flipped to 70. This pushes Bitcoin out of "neutral" territory and into "greed" territory. Investors are now lining up to buy Bitcoin. These three factors explain why Bitcoin has regained its mojo. And they also provide a very useful framework for understanding what could power Bitcoin higher during the coming months. The key factor here is likely market sentiment. Tariffs had been off the radar for some time, but now they're back. It looks like the "90 Deals in 90 Days" strategy has been replaced with a new "We'll send you a letter stating just how high your tariffs are going to be, and you're going to like it" strategy. Right now, Canada is staring at 35% tariffs, and Brazil is facing potential 50% tariffs. With that in mind, I'm keeping my eye on the crypto Fear and Greed Index. As long as it remains in positive territory, Bitcoin will likely move higher. However, if the tariff situation still hasn't been resolved by the end of summer, that's when the sentiment index might reverse direction, and investors might start taking some money off the table. Before you buy stock in Bitcoin, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and Bitcoin wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $671,477!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $1,010,880!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 1,047% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 180% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join . See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of July 14, 2025 Dominic Basulto has positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. 3 Factors Behind Bitcoin's Latest Record High. Will This Major Cryptocurrency Continue to Rise? was originally published by The Motley Fool Sign in to access your portfolio
News.com.au
2 days ago
- Business
- News.com.au
Anthony Albanese praised in editorial in Chinese state media
Anthony Albanese has enjoyed a glowing editorial in a state-owned Chinese newspaper, which welcomed his 'friendly' approach to the nation on his six-day trip. The editorial in the China Daily, however, took a shot at previous prime minister Scott Morrison for not having clear 'judgment and understanding' of the country. Titled 'Common ground prevails over differences', the editorial was published in China Daily, an English-language news organisation owned by the Chinese Communist Party's Central Propaganda Department. The release of the editorial coincides with Mr Albanese's planned meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing's Great Hall of the People. 'Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's ongoing visit to China is not only of significance for the bilateral and trade relations between the two countries, it also sends a message amid the changing global trade landscape,' the editorial started. 'Albanese's visit, which began on Saturday and will last until Friday, is notably long for a state leader, highlighting Australia's commitment to deepening ties and fostering stability amid the uncertain global landscape.' It continued on to highlight rising tensions with the US and makes a point of criticising former prime minister Scott Morrison. 'Albanese's visit shows that the Australian side has a clearer judgment and understanding of China than it had under the previous Scott Morrison government,' it said. Australia's relationship with the superpower soured under the Morrison government after Australia called for an investigation into the origins of Covid. Tariffs were placed on some of Australia's most significant exports to China, including coal, barley, copper and wine. The editorial noted that tension but praised the 'positive upturn' in China-Australia relations under the Albanese government as 'desirable' to restart negotiations on a free-trade agreement. Mr Morrison responded to the comments in a statement made to The Australian. 'Having a character reference from the China Daily was never one of my foreign policy aspirations,' he said. The China Daily editorial highlighted 'difference in terms of geopolitics' between the two nations but welcomed Mr Albanese's trip. 'Albanese's visit, his second since becoming prime minister, is intended as a 'friendly gesture' to ensure the positive development of bilateral relations on a stable track, according to his office,' it said. 'China, on its part, stands ready to work with Australia to take this visit as an opportunity to strengthen communication, enhance mutual trust, expand practical co-operation and push forward the two countries' comprehensive strategic partnership, as the Chinese Foreign Ministry indicated.'
Malay Mail
5 days ago
- Business
- Malay Mail
Trump's addictive tariff doctrine: Pinching, pummelling, and the price of global compliance — Phar Kim Beng
JULY 12 — The leaked audio of former President Donald J. Trump during a 2024 fundraiser—recently revealed by CNN—should not be dismissed as mere campaign bravado. When Trump admitted that he had initially asked for one million dollars but walked away with twenty-five times that amount, he sounded both amused and amazed. More revealing, however, was his offhand remark: 'It's about getting into the mindset.' That moment of candour explains far more than his fundraising psychology—it offers a blueprint for his foreign economic policy. Indeed, Trump's second presidency has been shaped not just by tariffs as an economic tool, but by tariffs as psychological warfare. Whether allies or adversaries, all are subject to his self-proclaimed principle of 'maximum extraction.' Tariffs are no longer just about market correction or economic protectionism; they are a means of tribute, coercion, and ultimately submission to Trump's worldview of American primacy. The executive order that redefined trade On January 20, 2025—the very first day of his second term—President Trump signed a sweeping Executive Order instructing the Secretary of Commerce and the Treasury Secretary to ensure that every possible tool be used to extract maximum revenue from global trade. Section B of the second paragraph of that Executive Order makes the objective brutally clear: to increase tariffs, duties, levies, and restrictions to yield up to US$400 billion in revenue for the US government within the calendar year. This is not trading policy. It is economic conquest. Unlike the tariffs of previous administrations that targeted dumping or strategic industries, Trump's approach is indiscriminate. It is premised on the idea that friends are easier to squeeze than enemies because they are less likely to retaliate in kind. 'It's easier to get more from friends—they won't fight back,' he was heard saying in another portion of the leaked audio. This has led to punitive tariffs on countries like Japan, South Korea, Germany, and Malaysia—nations that have historically enjoyed stable ties with the United States. Tariffs as tools of tribute Trump's method of tariff pummelling has three consistent features: First, it begins with a shock tariff—a sudden, often unannounced imposition of duties. This was evident on July 8, 2025, when the White House abruptly imposed 25 percent tariffs on key sectors from Asean, Japan, and South Korea, well before the previously floated deadline of August 1. The idea is to throw diplomatic teams off balance and create maximum psychological leverage. Second, Trump offers exemptions or 'carve-outs' as bargaining chips. Malaysia, for example, found its exports of semiconductors and integrated circuits—making up the bulk of its US$80 billion two-way trade with the US—exempted from the new tariffs. But this was no accident. Malaysia had just announced the purchase of 30 Boeing aircraft. The pattern is unmistakable: pay tribute in kind (defence purchases, foreign direct investments, or public endorsements of Trump), and you might receive reprieve. Third, he escalates the pressure through vague threats of future penalties. These are often announced at rallies or in interviews, keeping the world perpetually guessing about what comes next. The unpredictability is intentional, a form of controlled chaos that he believes gives America the upper hand in negotiations. Why the addiction? Trump's use of tariffs is not simply strategic. It is compulsive. The psychological high he receives from watching countries scramble to adjust, to mollify, or to appease him, feeds into a cycle of economic brinkmanship. His personal satisfaction seems rooted not in policy outcomes but in submission rituals—press conferences by foreign leaders pledging allegiance to US supply chains, or headlines about retaliatory restraint from trading partners. As former National Security Adviser John Bolton once observed, Trump sees foreign policy as a series of transactions. But in his second term, it has evolved into something more primal. The leaked audio proves that Trump sees economic policy as theatre—and he, the self-appointed master of ceremonies. The world is a stage for his psychological dominance. The friends he loves to punish The irony of Trump's doctrine is that it targets allies far more often than adversaries. China, for all its geopolitical rivalry with the US, remains cautiously respected by Trump for 'playing hardball.' On the other hand, allies like Canada, Germany, and South Korea are routinely slapped with tariffs not because they are unfair traders—but because they are perceived as 'too comfortable' under the US umbrella. In Asean's case, Trump's tactics are creating deep anxiety. Malaysia, as Group Chair of Asean and Chief Coordinator of Asean-China relations, finds itself pulled in multiple directions. While attempting to chart a neutral and balanced foreign policy, it is simultaneously exposed to unilateral US economic coercion. Even though key exports like semiconductors remain exempted, the message is clear: exemptions today can become punishments tomorrow, unless political alignment is made explicit. Revenue as power, not policy The US$400 billion target is not just about balancing America's books. It is about transforming revenue into geopolitical leverage. Trump believes that with enough economic weight, the US can force the world to comply with its rules—whether on trade, technology standards, digital taxation, or military basing rights. The logic is rooted in power, not principle. For Trump, tariffs are not a bridge to negotiation; they are a test of fealty. Countries that comply may get exemptions or defence guarantees. Those that resist face tariffs, travel bans, or diplomatic snubs. This reconfiguration of trade as tribute has turned even America's closest allies into cautious participants in an asymmetric relationship. Asean's narrow path Asean now faces the challenge of balancing Trump's tariff addiction with its own strategic autonomy. The region must avoid being perceived as either too accommodating or too resistant. Countries like Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam must reinforce intra-regional trade, accelerate digital transformation, and deepen supply chain resilience to avoid being trapped in Trump's tariff vise. Track 2 diplomacy, regional summits, and multilateral coalitions—whether through Brics+, Asean+3, or the East Asia Summit—must be mobilised not to oppose the US, but to insulate against its erratic policies. If Trump's first term taught the world about disruption, his second term is teaching them about addiction—to tariffs, tribute, and total control. In conclusion, the Trump Doctrine in 2025 is not just about 'America First.' It is about 'America Extracts.' And as long as this addiction goes unchecked, the world must brace itself—not for another trade war, but for a global system held hostage by a leader who equates economic pain with political gain. * Phar Kim Beng is a professor of Asean Studies and Director of the Institute of Internationalization and Asean Studies at the International Islamic University of Malaysia ** This is the personal opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of Malay Mail.
Zawya
13-06-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Watch out for dollar FX fall more than 'de-dollarization': Mike Dolan
(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.) LONDON: Evidence of "de-dollarization" around the world remains scant, but many major investors fear a gradual drawback from U.S. assets is now inevitable and the dollar's exchange rate may have to fall further to clear the market. The debate about the U.S. dollar's dominant role in global trade, reserves and investment portfolios has smoldered for decades, but it has reached a crescendo during the turbulent first few months of President Donald Trump's second term in the White House. European Central Bank boss Christine Lagarde recently put a spotlight on this shift in market thinking, noting "highly unusual cross-asset correlations" involving simultaneous drops in the dollar, Treasuries and U.S. stocks after Trump's import tariffs announcement in April. But despite all of the de-dollarization noise, there are still no clear indications of a mass withdrawal from dollar assets at large. In fact, some investors dismiss these fears altogether given the pattern of the past 10 years. Bank of America strategist Ralph Axel argues that despite all of the speculation, the world has actually been "rapidly dollarizing" over the past decade - at least in the sense that dollar liabilities have expanded enormously. In a research report on Thursday, Axel points in particular to the growth of the so-called shadow banking system, otherwise known as "Non-Bank Financial Intermediation", or NBFI, and refers to the universe of investment funds, private credit firms and even crypto funds that exist outside the regulated banking system. All dollar liabilities are effectively "money" in the sense that they can be sold for dollar cash and are thus ultimately claims on the Federal Reserve. Some of these liabilities are direct claims, such as U.S. Treasuries, but there are a blizzard of indirect claims through uninsured deposits, mortgage and corporate debt and investment fund shares. Dollar liabilities have clearly ballooned in the past decade. The U.S. federal debt has increased four-fold in less than 10 years to some $36 trillion, while bank deposits have more than doubled to $18 trillion since 2008. And, as Axel points out, the total size of "shadow banks" has also more than doubled since 2009 to roughly $63 trillion, according to S&P Global data. While much of this expansion simply reflects asset price appreciation, Axel notes that "the NBFI system can only grow because of demand for its liabilities." The point of all this number-crunching is to undermine the simplistic de-dollarization narrative. If de-dollarization were truly accelerating then fewer, not more, U.S. liabilities could be created, whether from the government, traditional lenders or shadow banks. And the trend has clearly been the other way. "A big selling wave can move prices and exchange rates temporarily but does not de-dollarize," he wrote. "As a result, we think the de-dollarization theme is less threatening, especially given what appears to be a stronger trend of global dollarization over time." WOOD FOR THE TREES In other words, the exchange rate of the dollar can fall even if dollar assets are not contracting. A weakening exchange rate simply signals that temporary demand for dollar assets is declining and a lower dollar sticker price is needed to clear the market. "We would caution investors to not miss the dollar story for the dollar trees," the Bank of America strategist concluded, in reference to the confusion between exchange rates and the ubiquity of dollars and dollar assets. Of course, the trends of the last 10 to 15 years may have crested, and that's precisely this year's concern. Questions about the dollar exchange exposure were also raised by Deutsche Bank's currency research team this week in a deep dive into the hedging behavior of the world's big pension and insurance funds with the heaviest overseas assets holdings. They showed that Nordic, Dutch and Australian institutional funds had more than 50% of their investment portfolios invested abroad, with Japan's and Switzerland's foreign holdings also high at above 30%. They concluded that most of these investments are in the U.S. and much of the currency risk is not being hedged, meaning exposure to the U.S. dollar is likely historically high. But as these funds' hedging activity is now increasing, they reckon, it should pressure the dollar exchange rate lower. All of which raises an important, albeit circular, question. To what extent was the performance of U.S. assets exaggerated in recent years by investors assumption of an ever-rising dollar and a hedge against global shocks? And was the dollar just rising because of that outsize overseas demand for U.S. stocks and bonds? And, on the flip side, to what extent could a weakening dollar now cause demand for those assets to fall? What market pricing near mid-year suggests is that even if de-dollarization fears are overblown, the dollar's exchange rate may be a necessary safety valve. The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters. (By Mike Dolan; Editing by Jamie Freed)
